Achtbaan op de beurs niet verklaard
Het wordt voorspelbaar: sluit de beurs vandaag hoger dan komt dat omdat
‘beleggers meer vertrouwen hebben’ in de goede afloop van de Eurocrisis,
sluit de beurs lager dan zal de verklaring zijn dat diezelfde ‘beleggers’
somber gestemd waren over een oplossing. Hoe we vandaag sluiten is anybody’s
guess, gooi maar een muntje op, daarom nu even wat items die overnight in
het nieuws waren die op wat langere termijn trends duiden.

Inflatie
Zowel hier als in de V.S. geen issue. En dat is begrijpelijk met de zeer hoge
werkloosheid (door achterblijvende vraag). Twee items:
“US inflation expectations lowest for a year — Market expectations fall
below the Federal Reserve’s unofficial target as investors respond to the
central bank’s latest stimulation effort” en “Deflation
Woes Stalk ECB’s Monetary-Policy Outlook: Euro Credit — The increasing cost
of insuring against deflation in Europe suggests the European Central Bank
will need to cut interest rates to prevent an economic slump from
exacerbating the region’s debt crisis. In France, 10-year breakeven rates
measuring how much compensation investors demand to protect against rising
consumer prices are the lowest in at least eight years..” (Bloomberg, geen
link)

Monetair beleid ECB
In de V.S. zitten ze al op nul rente, maar in de ECB zitten bijna alleen maar
haviken die de afgelopen tijd impliciet de keuze hebben gemaakt dat ze
liever een recessie/kleine depressie in de periferielanden zien, dan dat
Duitsland het gevaar loopt een heel klein beetje inflatie moet ondergaan. Ik
vrees dat het nog enige tijd gaat duren voordat de duiven in de ECB de baas
zijn: Dit item is tekenend:

”
ECB Update: October Rate Cut Expectations May Be Premature — The European
Central Bank is gearing up for more support measures to show that Europe is
serious about addressing the crisis, but expectations of a cut in the ECB’s
key refinancing rate as soon as next Thursday may be premature. Policymakers
are no doubt increasingly concerned about recent developments in financial
markets and a potential spillover into the real economy, but at this point
they seem likely to rely primarily on liquidity measures to address the
causes of recent tensions. While a number of Council members, including Luc
Coene, Yves Mersch and Ewald Nowotny have allowed for the possibility of a
reduction in borrowing cost should the economy deteriorate further, others
have stressed that real rates are negative and borrowing costs thus very
low. Mersch outright rejected any speculation of a sharp 50 basis point cut.
“These wild expectations only show that some people have lost the north,” he
told Market News International, in a reference to the often-cited ECB priced
stability compass. Even a more modest cut of 25 basis points may not be in
the offing before downside economic risks materialize further. Executive
Board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi said Tuesday that we are still in a very
different position than when the ECB slashed interest rates to a historic
low of 1.0% in 2009. “

Verenigd Europa
Dreigt een contradictio in terminis te worden:
“Euro Zone Split On Private Creditors’ Burden In Greek Bailout –FT — The
euro zone is divided over how much of a hit private creditors should take in
the second, longer-term bailout of Greece, the Financial Times reported
online Tuesday, citing senior European officials. As many as 7 of the 17
states that use the euro currency have started pressing for the private
sector to bear a greater share of losses, now that it’s clear Greek
financing needs are greater than when a deal with bondholders was reached in
July. Leaders in the zone agreed, along with co-lenders the International
Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank, to provide EUR109 billion in
loans to cover Greece’s financing needs for the next several years.
Hard-liners within member states Germany and the Netherlands are leading
calls for a greater private write-down, but France and the ECB fiercely
resist such a move because reopening the bond deal could spark a fresh
sell-off of shares in Greece-exposed European banks, according to the FT’s
sources.”

Banken
Banken hebben fundingproblemen, en de centrale banken helpen die op te lossen,
zie “Euro
Crisis Makes Fed Lender of Only Resort as Funding Dries Up” & “Trichet:
Non-Standard Steps Proportional To Market Malfunction”. En met
wat kunst- en vliegwerk (zie:
“European banks innovate with bonds to fill funding gap”) lukt het
de banken dus ook om aan funding te komen. En het is dus begrijpelijk dat
met al die ellende het uitlenen wat minder enthousiast gebeurt:
“Banks wary of financing big projects”- Participants say capital rules and
eurozone crisis to blame and say infrastructure schemes will increasingly be
funded by investors". Ik zie – onder de huidige regeringen - niet
1,2,3 hoe deze situatie snel kan verbeteren.

Handel
Ik denk wel dat er een soort van Tobin tax gaat komen. De consensus neigt meer
en meer naar voor:
“EU plans global financial-transaction tax: report - The European Union
wants to tax financial transactions worldwide that involve Europeans, German
daily Handelsblatt reports Wednesday, citing a draft proposal. Offshore
banks would also have to collect the tax when they conduct transactions for
European customers, the newspaper said. European Commission President Jose
Manuel Barroso intends to announce the tax plan to the European Parliament
with an eye to introduction in 2014, the newspaper said. The plan marks the
first attempt to tax financial transactions on such a broad basis, the
newspaper said “

De effecten zullen groot zijn voor de handelshuizen – spreekt vanzelf - en
wellicht ook op macro-schaal voor een negatief effect hebben: “Tax
plan raises fears for Europe business - Introducing a financial transaction
tax across the European Union would wipe out or displace up to 90 per cent
of derivatives transactions and hit the bloc’s economic output by almost 1.8
per cent over the long term, according to an official impact assessment.
José Manuel Barroso, European Commission president, will on Wednesday unveil
plans for a new tax on all types of financial instruments used by European
investors, arguing it is a fair way for taxpayers to claw back the costs of
the banking crisis. Mr Barroso is expected to unveil the exact scope and tax
rate on Wednesday. But last night were still being debated within the
Commission and between France and Germany, the main proponents of the
measure.European officials argue some “mitigating effects” in the final tax
design will limit the hit on the economic output to around 0.5 per cent over
the long term, in part because the money collected will be invested in areas
to stimulate growth.But in the official model used by the European
Commission, imposing a tax of 0.1 per cent on stocks and bond trades and
0.01 per cent on all derivatives is found to reduce long-run gross domestic
product in the EU by 1.76 per cent.”

Jacob Jurg is verbonden aan AFS en
verantwoordelijk voor nieuws en research.

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